Amongst all the talk of overthrowing Gordon Brown the Tories have said that if Labour ‘forces another unelected Prime Minister’ on the country they’ll try and force an election. I’m not a constitutional expert, but two points stand out here:
1. Prime Ministers don’t have to be elected- they only need to be able to command a majority in the House of Commons
2. Related to 1, as long as any Labour Leader commands a majority in the Commons, how can the Tories win a vote of no confidence?
Now whilst it can be argued that the person of Prime Minister is integral to the identity of government (therefore favouring a poll every time that a new Prime Minister kisses hands) this argument is often made by the same people who decry the presidential nature of the premiership. In short, the critics can’t have it both ways.
Whether the public would wear another change of leader without a poll entirely depends on the circumstances: indeed, there were (Tory) people who said Gordon Brown shouldn’t hold a poll last autumn precisely because he would have won and this would have been a manipulation of the public sentiment. To sum up, there is no constitutional reason why there should be an election if the leadership changes: indeed, the only people who’ll be calling for one will be those who think they can win…
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May 25, 2008 at 9:01 pm
Praguetory
I love it when you on the Left take up arguments like this. It makes you look hopelessly out of touch.
May 25, 2008 at 9:33 pm
colenotdole
I have no problem with holding an election: all I am pointing out is that there is no precedent whereby one would have to be held. As for being out of touch, I know enough Tory activists and think-tankers from when I used to work in Westminster to say that I’m confident the next 2 years is going to be far from plain sailing for Cameron…
May 26, 2008 at 12:08 am
Praguetory
I’m a fairly simple guy and so I consider that there are mandate elections and verdict elections. The ‘election that never was’ last October would have been neither and I think we would have beaten you. Gordon would have been better off making an announcement on election timing as soon as he took over.
What you really need is to present the next election as a mandate election, but I suspect the public will treat it as a verdict election – looks grim I’d say.
May 26, 2008 at 11:11 am
colenotdole
I hope you’re wrong: certainly the support for the Conservatives at the moment is a worry, but I think (and hope) it is is more a reflection of disatisfaction with the Government than any active will to have a Tory administration. The challenge for Cameron is to turn that frustration with us into a positive reason to vote for you guys: it certainly doesn’t help that we’re doing a lot of the work for you at the moment. The thing is though, whilst the majority of Labour party members in the bad old days of the 80s were to the right of the leadership (meaning it was easier to get the party back onto the centreground), I don’t get a sense that there are many wets left in the Tories: you only have to look at calls for a more explicit tax cutting agenda to see that many on your side just don’t get it yet. The past 11 years has shown that people will pay taxes if they get something back for them: it’s been a massive failure of communication on our part to demonstrate that public services have got better. So, whilst the Conservative ‘brand’ has been decontaminated, it remains to be seen whether the party at large can be.
May 26, 2008 at 11:59 am
Praguetory
I don’t know if you go into any pubs or work in an office, but I don’t hear many people arguing with the common refrain that we’re being overtaxed. Having a government that wants to do something about it rather than one that says ’so what?’ seems in tune with the public mood.
‘it’s been a massive failure of communication on our part to demonstrate that public services have got better’
I’d suggest that it’s been a massive failure of delivery. You lot have been spinning for all its worth and still you can’t ‘communicate’ that services have improved. And keep clutching at the nasty/selfish Tory straw – otherwise you may lose the motivation.
May 26, 2008 at 1:36 pm
colenotdole
I’m a medical scientist who works in a NHS hospital and a University tutor. I’ve also been a candidate in local elections so I’m more than familiar with a wide cross-section of public opinion. How that’s relevant though I don’t know.
The point I want to make is that people will always say they’re overtaxed: it’s basic economics (and the basis of modern politics) to go beyond this and look at expressed vs. revealed preferences. So, whilst people express a desire for lower taxes, they also express a desire for an NHS that is free at the point of use.
These are not necessarily irreconcilable (but largely are): politics instead involves looking at revealed preferences. So you can have X, but it will cost you Y. You can have lower taxes but spending somewhere must be cut: the problem with the Conservatives under Cameron is that they want to have their cake and eat it. Match Labour spending and cut tax at the same time. Make efficiency savings in Whitehall (where have I heard that before?!). Yes, productivity in the public sector is not where it should be, but that is more a function of money going in before reform was made: as a moderniser (and former fellow at the Adam Smith Institute), I think that was plain silly to pump cash into structures that were simply not able to cope with it. Market based reforms of the public services need to go deeper and faster, but that’s what happened and now that reforms are being implemented people’s experiences of public services are by and large positive. In a way, the NHS Trust deficit problems were in the long term interest of the NHS because it means that financial management has to be accorded a higher priority than it did before. Just look at the cost of private dentistry if you want to see how the legacy of Tory health policies impacts on ordinary people in practice.
As for being in tune with the public mood, I am proud to be a member of a party that has lifted children out of poverty, not only saved the NHS from collapsing but improved it immeasurably, improved school results and school buildings, presided over a record period of quarter on quarter growth, delivered record low interest rates, seen London become a global city for living and business to rival New York, and made Britain a country more at ease with itself, minorities and homosexuals.
And I need to clutch onto no straw for evidence of what Tories are like in practice: I can look at any of the Wintertons off-colour remarks, Derek Conway’s feather-bedding, or back home to Coventry where they control the council and have cut youth services and library provision, directly disadvantaging those people who need those services most. The next election will be fought on whether we want to defend opportunity for all or the privileges of the few. I for one look forward to fighting it.
May 26, 2008 at 3:03 pm
Praguetory
I’m hearing that you think the answer is market-based reform of the public services. Are you sure you’re in the right party?
Re revealed preferences, I think that the ballot box is revealing people’s preferences pretty loud and clear.
Unless the comments come from Left-wing thought police I don’t give two hoots about what people joke about. As for Derek Conway, I (and no doubt other Conservative members) lobbied the party to take action against him and the timely and decisive action contrasts nicely with the inaction we have come to expect from your party (Prescott, Livingstone, Blunkett etc) – we have higher standards.
May 26, 2008 at 6:17 pm
colenotdole
I’m pretty sure I’m in the right party: the Government has been pro-market and that’s something I (amongst others) am proud of: New Labour is about allying social justice to economic (i.e. market) efficiency. Moreover, I am by inclination a whig, by sentiment a liberal, and by instinct an anti-Tory. All such facts lead me to be a member of the party of progress: I would never do anything as vulgar as join the Conservatives. In fact, I am reminded of an exchange between Lord Lansdowne and the Duke of Devonshire shortly after the Duke had succeeded and taken his seat in the Lords. Lord Lansdowne was the Duke’s father in law and Tory leader in the Lords: however, both men were in the Conservative party under duress, descending as they did from great Whig families. When walking back from the Lords one day they were caught in a freak shower. The young Duke suggested taking shelter in the nearby Carlton Club. With a look of disgust, the Marquess replied: ‘what do you mean, Victor, go in here? Not at all.’ So despite serving as a senior Tory, Lansdowne still refused to associate with them. Moreover, Devonshire was later recalled as shouting on a grouse moor ‘these damned grouse; they won’t fly straight- like a lot of Tories.’ So, in short, I’m happy in my choice of party…